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Fangyuan Cao

Fangyuan Cao

曹方源
International Studies & Applied Mathematics
Johns Hopkins University · Class of MMXXX

Hi! I’m Fangyuan, but you can call me Sam. I write and research at the intersection of economics, philosophy, and history — mostly on political economy, distributive justice, and demographic change.

Four Works

Highlights

Essays and research, 2024–2025

Highlights
I

John Locke Essay Competition

The Asymmetry of Moral Obligations

We can ground our obligations to the living in ordinary morality. Our obligations to future people cannot be grounded that way at all.

Moral disagreement is permanent, and we cannot know how future values will diverge from ours, so fixed precepts are the wrong tool for questions like climate change. Using Moehler’s multilevel social contract theory, the essay separates intuitive first-level morality from second-level bargaining among instrumentally rational agents, and argues that only the second can bind us across generations.

Very High Commendation · top 1% globally

Read the essay
II

Harvard International Economics Essay Contest

Beyond Carbon Subsidies

Green subsidies buy almost no abatement at enormous cost. Carbon taxes buy a great deal at a fraction of it, and are still the harder policy to keep.

U.S. renewable subsidies cut CO₂ by roughly 0.3% a year; global biofuel subsidies raised emissions by 4.8 million tons. Britain’s carbon price cut power-sector emissions 55%. Abatement costs tell the same story — €206 and €978 a ton for German wind and solar against €36 and €55 in Britain. But repeals and fuel-price revolts show the efficient instrument is the fragile one.

Finalist · top 5% of 347 entries

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III

Independent Research

Why One Child?

The one-child policy is usually read as an authoritarian state stopping at nothing. It is better read as a state that had lost faith in ideology and put its faith in science instead.

After Mao’s campaigns the Party rejected the ideological wholesale, and Scientism filled the vacuum: the Song group’s control-theory models carried an authority social scientists could not match, reinforced by Western overpopulation anxiety from The Population Bomb and Limits to Growth. What followed was a shrinking workforce, a skewed sex ratio, and rapid aging.

Book-length history

Read the paper
IV

High School Fed Challenge, FRB New York

Lett-uce Unpack

Fast food is not just a consumer market. It is the channel through which agricultural consolidation reaches the labor market and the price level.

A podcast script for the New York Fed’s competition, tracing the line from concentrated animal feeding operations and agricultural monopolization through volatility in food-service employment to consumer prices, then proposing tax incentives for food deserts and community nutrition education.

Published in the Journal of Future Economics · 12 of 195

Additional Writings

Competitions, research, and other essays

i

Evaluating Governmental Controls on Social Media Speech

Horizon Academic Essay Prize, 2025

Honorable Mention · top 50 of 1,952 international entries

A competition judged by faculty from Yale, Harvard, Oxford, and Cambridge. The essay argues that state regulation of disinformation fails on its own terms: Germany’s 2017 Network Enforcement Act pushed platforms to over-block rather than adjudicate, and cut disinformation very little; AI takedowns produce enormous numbers of false positives and have almost no multilingual training data; and compliance-driven moderation moves slower than the misinformation it chases. Independent fact-checking and media literacy are the more durable alternative, because they do not require the state to decide what is true.

Read the essay
ii

The Meritocracy Dilemma

CCIR Re:Think Competition, 2026

Honorable Mention

Meritocracy is a myth — not in the sense that it disguises structural inequality, but in the stricter sense that it cannot satisfy its own justificatory conditions. The essay takes on desert-based meritocracy, the claim that allocations are intrinsically justified because people deserve outcomes according to their merits, and argues it is incompatible with the liberal societies that are the only place desert is intelligible as a fairness criterion in the first place. Set out the conditions that would justify it, and the conditions turn out to be ones liberalism cannot meet.

Read the paper
iii

A Fertility Crisis

Marshall Society Essay Competition, Cambridge, 2024

Commendation · top 4% of over 1,000 international entries

The annual contest of the Cambridge University Economics Society. The essay applies the Solow growth model to project output contraction under sustained below-replacement fertility, then tests the standard policy response — pro-natalist cash transfers — against the Easterlin hypothesis, and argues that perceived economic stability is a far more durable lever on fertility than transfers are.

Read the essay
iv

No Prey, No Pay, No Tyranny

National History Day, Senior Division, 2025

California State Finalist, 1 of 15 · sole recipient of the Maritime History Award

A research website arguing that pirate crews of the Golden Age were the most democratic and egalitarian institutions of the pre-Enlightenment world. Working from articles of agreement and other primary sources, it shows crews practising elected leadership, written constitutions, and compensation schemes that the Royal Navy and the merchant service — the supposedly lawful alternatives — did not.

Read the project
v

Patent Reform and Follow-on Innovation

Institute for Youth in Policy, Public Policy Fellowship

Outstanding Capstone

A capstone arguing that over-broad patents suppress follow-on innovation by raising entry costs for the firms best placed to improve on an existing invention, and proposing an expansion of post-grant review under the America Invents Act. Written during a two-month fellowship with roughly a 6–8% acceptance rate; I also co-authored four nonpartisan economic policy briefs and was a paid co-author on a depolarization white paper published with Business for America.

Read the capstone

The Vault

A live map of my reading notes

Every idea I have written down, and the links between them — the same graph I read and write in. Hover a node to trace what connects to what; drag one to disturb its neighbourhood, scroll to zoom, double-click to reset.

Contact

Baltimore, Maryland

I’m always happy to connect — whether about research, writing, or anything in between.